Before Johan Santana's signing the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, the Indians were hoping to sign C.C. Sabathia for a contract between Chris Carpenter's 5yr-$63m and Carlos Zambrano's 5yr-$91m. Sabathia has built a home in the Cleveland area and genuinely wanted to continue his career there. His agent was reportedly having conversations with the Tribe's front office (here).
Prior to Barry Zito's ridiculous 7yr-$126m contract last off-season, Mike Hampton's contract with the Rockies(which he is still being paid for amazingly, good work if you can get it) was the standard. For a time after this salaries were on a downward trend which is why it has never been passed, but now that it has been passed in each of the past two off-seasons I'm sure Sabathia has to have at least that number in his head.
The question though is not how much Sabathia will get, because that depends on how much he wants to stay in Cleveland. If he truly does, he can get something in the Zambrano range. If he wants to test the waters of free agency, he stands to make a boatload of money. Even in what might turn out to be a solid free agent pitching class next year, including A.J. Burnett(who can opt-out and has super-agent Scott Boras), John Lackey, Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, and Brad Penny and John Smoltz who have club options.
The New York Yankees will have a lot of money to throw around next year, they lose Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi's contracts. That adds up to about $50m, so they can easily give Sabathia a significant raise.
But back to the matter at hand, how much is Sabathia worth. Although Sabathia will only be 27 when the season begins and Santana will be 29, Sabathia has thrown 100 more innings excluding the playoffs. Sabathia strikes out less batters, gives up more hits and has a higher WHIP. The only place he is significantly better is that he gives up less homeruns, the most he has ever given up is 20, and Santana has never given up less than 22 in a full season, even though Sabathia pitches in a hitter's park, and Santana pitches in a well known pitcher's park.
Both pitchers are consistant, Sabathia has never thrown less than 180 innings in his 7 years, and Santana has been a workhorse the last four years, throwing over 900 innings. Sabathia's weight has to be a concern for prospective employers, he is listed generously at 250lbs., but has had good stamina over his career, and seemingly carries his weight well.
While Sabathia has never thrown less than 180 innings, in 2007 he threw 46 more innings(including post-season) than his previous high, and 64 more innings than in 2006. This is a drastic increase in innings pitched, especially since there was a lot of high stress innings in the post-season, where he seemed to lose steam.
The last pitcher who made that big a jump in innings while throwing at least 250 innings was Pat Hentgen. He had one more good year before steadily declining. He was also 28 at the time.
This doesn't mean the same thing would happen to Sabathia, it is just worth noting that another heavy workload this year could affect him down the road, if not this year.
Timing is everything, and Sabathia is lucky he will enter free agency following Santana's record contract. Sabathia's numbers match up well with Carlos Zambrano's but stands to make significantly more money than Zambrano did.
Since becoming a full-time starter Zambrano is 77-45, a .631 winning percentage. Sabathia is 100-63, a .613 percentage. Their WHIPs are near identical, and though Zambrano's ERA is .4 runs lower, when adjusted for league, their ERAs are extremely similar. They have similar builds although Zambrano's weight and conditioning has come under more scrutiny than Sabathia's has. Zambrano also has been more consistant, pitching betwee 209 and 223 inning the past 5 years. He never had a severe jump in innings pithced and never had an ERA higher than 3.95, albeit in a lesser league.
While Sabathia is a top-line picher, he is nowhere near Santana's class. Sabathia asserted to the Associated Press, "I think I'm not far behind [Santana], but I don't think you'll ever get me to say that I'm the best lefty in baseball." With that said he will want near Santana money. If he doesn't approach Zito's contract it will be a surprise, with baseball being flush with cash, and every team needing a front-line starter.
